Impact of Russia's invasion of Ukraine on Vietnam's security

*Protest in front of the Russian embassy against Putin’s invasion of Ukraine*

Putin’s Russia has launched an all-out assault on a series of Ukrainian cities, not just two partially “separatist” provinces. In it, the landings in Odessa, the city opposite Turkey’s Istanbul on the Black Sea coast, reflect Putin’s 19th-century geopolitical ambitions and illusions. Regardless of whether Russia only threatens or wipes out the incumbent Ukrainian government, quickly withdraws or occupies, gets bogged down or crushes the uprising Ukrainian forces, the sanctions and comprehensive blockade of Europe, America, and Japan against with Russia and countries that have economic and military relations with large Russian military and state-owned companies is quite high.

Looking at the impact of this event on Vietnam, we see that perhaps military equipment is something that Vietnam needs to consider right now, especially in relation to China.

Military weapons

Once Russia is embargoed, blockaded, countries that buy Russian weapons are also likely to be prevented from providing maintenance equipment and weapons accompanying war weapons.

Vietnam is now deeply dependent on Russian weapons. Warplanes, missiles, and submarines all require mainstay weapons and periodic replacements, following a fixed system.

Regarding the air force, according to FlightGlobal’s “World Air Forces 2022” report, Vietnam currently has 34 Su-22 aircraft, 43 Su-27, and Su-35 aircraft from Russia. In 2020, there is information that Vietnam plans to buy 12 more Su-30s. Vietnam currently owns the largest number of Su-30 in the world.

The Vietnamese army currently owns 34 Su-22 aircraft. According to information from Rosoboronexport (Russian Defense Export), Russia no longer produces Su-22 and Su-27, so Vietnam certainly lacks equipment and spare parts.

As for the Su-22 aircraft in Vietnam, even if Russia has not had a deep conflict with the West, the lack of spare parts is a current problem, not a “future” matter anymore. Vietnam’s Su-27 aircraft have also been used for over 25 years, it’s time to overhaul and upgrade if it wants to use them effectively in combat.

Regarding the navy, “submarine brigade 189” is the first submarine force of the Vietnamese Army, launched in 2013 at Cam Ranh, June 24, 2013. This force consists of 6 submarines, all ordered from Russia since 2009, with an estimated value of $ 4.3 billion. All 6 submarines were fully delivered in 2017.

These ships are all new, and important equipment and spare parts may still be in good condition. However, Vietnam not only needs to import from the manufacturer (Russia) maintenance equipment but also needs to buy from Russia the weapons accompanying this combat vehicle.

The main weapons of the six submarines purchased from Russia are Klub-S missiles, anti-submarine missiles, surface-to-surface cruise missiles, and anti-ship missiles. As for the Sukhoi fighters, Rosoboronexport (Russian Defense Export) offers six types of air-to-air missiles for the aforementioned aircraft.

Submarines without missiles are just like cruise ships.

Russia does not transfer weapons production technology. Vietnam is also unable to copy itself. Some other devices are likely to have to be imported periodically.

Equipment, spare parts, and especially weapons that come with Russian planes, missiles, and submarines cannot be integrated with US systems.

Once Russia is embargoed, Europe and America, and Japan sanction not only Russia but also countries doing business with Russia, especially in terms of military equipment, it will be difficult for Vietnam when there is no alternative source.

At this time, the main combat vehicles of the Vietnamese Army are in danger of becoming “toys” or not, completely depending on Vietnam’s diplomatic ability with the West.

Russia’s challenge to the democracies of Europe, America, and Japan is likely to last at least until Putin is out of power, perhaps for at least 10 years. Now if China attacks Vietnam, the submarines would still be able to swim, the Su planes would still be able to fly, weapons would still be available to shoot, but no one is sure a few years later.

Memoirs “How we lost the Vietnam war?” According to former Vice President Nguyen Cao Ky of South Vietnam, when the US aid was still available, every time a spare part of a fighter plane was damaged, the engineers of the Republic of Vietnam brought it out for maintenance and repair, the American engineers said: Look, we have a lot in stock, there is no need for you to fix, just get a new one instead. As a result, engineers in South Vietnam forgot maintenance skills. When the US aid was gone, they could not repair old equipment, there were many planes but they were “covered” in the warehouse. By 1975, North Vietnamese infantry and tanks ran one after another on the highway, but the air force was powerless.

If this detail is true, it means that from 1973 to 1975, the Republic of Vietnam did not have time for engineers to rehearse their lost skills. Today, if Vietnam does not handle international relations wisely, submarines are still there, but the possibility of partial cover is possible. Vietnam currently still has time to handle the situation but must act, and sitting still, it is very easy to be forced to death by China.

Facing a world divided into two systems

The sanctions of Europe, America, and Japan against Russia can deepen the relationship between Russia and China, the world situation divided into two axes between the US and China is likely to become overwhelming. These two axes will form two separate systems, with separate chains of links in finance, raw material areas, transport networks, and markets.

Economic relations, especially supply chains, are also likely to be upset. Vietnam is a country that depends on imports and export, so it will be greatly affected economically.

Regarding the energy industry, in particular, Vietnam depends on Russian equipment, including Power Machines Company. In 2020, this Russian company was listed on the US sanctions list. US citizens are not allowed to cooperate. This company has the Long Phu 1 Thermal Power Plant project with the Vietnam Oil and Gas Group (PVN). This project is affected by the US sanctions and they want to push the responsibility to PVN. The Russian Power Machines story precedes the current invasion of Ukraine. But it foreshadows difficulties in Vietnam’s energy industry in the future if Vietnam has not yet found an alternative source.

Thoibao.de (Translated)

Source: https://www.rfa.org/vietnamese/news/comment/ReadersOpinions/how-does-russia-invasion-affect-vn-security-02242022071923.html

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