The latest statistics of the General Department of Vietnam Customs show that Vietnam’s exports to Russia last month decreased by nearly 45% and to Ukraine decreased by 60% on month due to the influence of “Russia- Ukraine tensions.”
The invasion, a phrase Vietnam has avoided using in the official language and in all the state-controlled media, was carried out by Russia in Ukraine starting on February 24, the last week of February, but made Vietnam’s goods exports to Russia just over $180 million, down nearly 45% compared to January and down 12.5% over the same period in 2021. Meanwhile, export of goods to Ukraine only reached nearly $13 million, down 60% compared to January and sharply down 33% over the same period last year, according to the General Department of Vietnam Customs.
In contrast, Vietnam’s goods imports from Russia in February reached $257 million, up 93% over the same period in 2021. Accumulating 2 months, imports of goods from Russia reached $540 million, up 60%.
Meanwhile, imports of goods from Ukraine in February reached nearly $49 million, up 6.7 times over the same period in 2021. Accumulated in 2 months, imports from Ukraine reached $54 million, up 4.5 times compared to the same period in 2021.
In general, in the first two months of the year, the Vietnam-Russia trade reached just over $1 billion. The trade between Vietnam and Ukraine only reached nearly $100 million.
According to the General Department of Customs, although there are big fluctuations in the goods market in the two markets of Russia and Ukraine, these fluctuations do not have a great impact on the total import and export turnover of Vietnam because of trade between Vietnam and Vietnam with these two countries accounted for only 1.1%.
However, Vietnam’s economy has begun to suffer heavy impacts from the sanctions that the West and many countries around the world are imposing on Russia because of the invasion of Ukraine.
According to the latest assessment of the authors of the BIDV Training and Research Institute, Vietnam’s inflation may rise to 4.2%, and the worst scenario is GDP growth of only 4.5-5%. “This poses a big challenge to the target of 6-6.5% growth and inflation control around 4% this year,” the authors said.
According to preliminary calculation results of this group, Vietnam’s petroleum trade deficit will reach $9 billion (compared to $6.3 billion in 2021), the average CPI of the whole year will increase by 0.8- 1 percentage point, to 3.8-4.2%, and GDP in 2022 will decrease by 1.1-1.3 percentage points. With this estimate, Vietnam’s economy will grow by 5.7-5.9% (compared to the forecast of 6.5-7% at the beginning of the year or the end of February) and possibly even lower, at 4.5-5% if the worse scenario occurs.
Translated by Thoibao.de from the original source: https://www.voatiengviet.com/a/6480864.html
